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The relationship with the United States remains a primary source of tension. Washington’s “America First” posture, highlighted in its recent security strategy, has signaled that Europe must take over the lion’s share of its own conventional defense. While NATO allies have agreed to target 5% of GDP for defense by 2035, many in Brussels view this timeline as nearly impossible.

This pressure has fueled calls from leaders like Kaja Kallas and António Costa for greater strategic autonomy, asserting that Europe must be able to defend itself regardless of the political winds in Washington.

Ultimately, the transition to a war ready continent faces deep structural and regulatory limits

Thomas Regnier and other EU officials acknowledge that decades of underinvestment cannot be reversed overnight. Regulatory bottlenecks and limited production capacity in the defense industry remain significant hurdles. As the EU fast-tracks reforms and releases billions in pre-financing for missile and drone projects, the fundamental question remains: can the European Union modernize its industry and unify its defense strategy fast enough to deter a conflict that many experts believe is no longer a matter of ‘if,’ but ‘when’?