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European leaders now find themselves caught between two imperatives—deterring future aggression while maintaining unity at home. EU leaders agreed last December on a new €90 billion loan package to support Ukraine. Meanwhile, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced a series of defence initiatives aimed at strengthening Europe’s deterrence capacity by 2030. These moves come amid stark rhetoric. On 2 December, Vladimir Putin stated that Russia was prepared to fight if necessary and warned there would be “no one left to negotiate with.”

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