AI Predicts Winner Of 2028 Race Between JD Vance, Ocasio-Cortez

Yet the map makes clear that progressive purity is electoral poison.

Vance locks down a rock-solid base of 188 electoral votes in deep-red strongholds: Utah, Wyoming, Idaho, Montana, the Dakotas, Kansas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, West Virginia, Indiana, South Carolina, Alaska, plus the vast majority of Nebraska.

But the real story is the expansion.

“With AOC as his opponent, Vance is going to have a few additional states in his safe column,” the analyst noted.

Ohio, Vance’s home state, shifts to solid red after Trump’s 11-point 2024 romp. Iowa follows suit after 13-point margins.

Even Texas, once a competitive prize, returns to the solid column after Trump’s nearly 14-point win last cycle. “The vice president can no doubt improve upon Trump’s 2024 performance,” the narrator said.

AOC’s “solid blue” map is a disaster zone—just 98 electoral votes from the West Coast, Hawaii, Vermont, Massachusetts, Maryland, D.C., and Maine’s 1st District.

“She doesn’t even crack 100,” the analyst observed dryly.

Likely states only widen the gap. Florida, North Carolina, Arizona, and Maine’s 2nd District put Vance at 246 electoral votes—just 24 short of victory—while AOC scrapes by with Oregon, Colorado, a shrunken Illinois and New York, plus the Eastern Seaboard leftovers for 179.

“The main reason behind her poor performance is simply the fact that she’s too progressive,” the author explained.